Prognostics CoE Publications

This chapter presents theoretical and practical aspects associated to the implementation of a combined model-based/data-driven approach for failure prognostics based on particle filtering algorithms, in which the current esti- mate of the state PDF is used to determine the operating condition of the system and predict the progression of a fault indicator, given a dynamic state model and a set of process measurements. In this approach, the task of es- timating the current value of the fault indicator, as well as other important changing parameters in the environment, involves two basic steps: the predic- tion step, based on the process model, and an update step, which incorporates the new measurement into the a priori state estimate.
This framework allows to estimate of the probability of failure at future time instants (RUL PDF) in real-time, providing information about time-to- failure (TTF) expectations, statistical confidence intervals, long-term predic- tions; using for this purpose empirical knowledge about critical conditions for the system (also referred to as the hazard zones). This information is of paramount significance for the improvement of the system reliability and cost-effective operation of critical assets, as it has been shown in a case study where feedback correction strategies (based on uncertainty measures) have been implemented to lengthen the RUL of a rotorcraft transmission system with propagating fatigue cracks on a critical component. Although the feed- back loop is implemented using simple linear relationships, it is helpful to provide a quick insight into the manner that the system reacts to changes on its input signals, in terms of its predicted RUL. The method is able to manage non-Gaussian pdf’s since it includes concepts such as nonlinear state estimation and confidence intervals in its formulation.
Real data from a fault seeded test showed that the proposed framework was able to anticipate modifications on the system input to lengthen its RUL. Results of this test indicate that the method was able to successfully suggest the correction that the system required. In this sense, future work will be focused on the development and testing of similar strategies using different input-output uncertainty metrics.